Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-09 22:05

80%
Win Probability
+34.0
Projected Margin
CI: [+14.0 to +54.0]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
4
Bust Risk
Juwan Johnson (73%), Jameson Williams (40%), Omarion Hampton (56%), Rams D/ST (72%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Brissett 18.0 vs Love 15.0. Brissett 73% historical BOOM mode. Love faces elite DEN pass rush @Denver.
RB: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Irving 16.0 vs Hampton 10.0. Irving Thursday vs ATL (favorable). Hampton @KC elite run D.
WR: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice JSN 22.0 (WR1) vs Rice 20.0 (WR7). Both MUST START. JSN consensus WR1 vs weak IND defense.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Johnson 10.0 vs Henry 9.0. Johnson vs CAR favorable. Henry faces tough BUF (XGB 72% bust).
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Williams 16.0 vs McMillan 12.0. Williams WR11, DET@LAR highest O/U (54.5).

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett 13.918.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving 15.216.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton 11.710.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.822.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice 17.220.0MODERATEHIGH
TE Juwan Johnson 9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams 13.916.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers 8.511.0MODERATEHIGH
D/ST Rams D/ST 4.25.0BUSTMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust
ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a strong matchup advantage against Auto DraftKings with a projected +34 point margin (128.0 vs 94.0). Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters as consensus WR1 against a weak Indianapolis defense with Seattle favored by 13.5 points, while Jacoby Brissett gets the start over Jordan Love thanks to his remarkable 73% historical BOOM mode despite facing Houston's elite defense. The Thursday night game features Bucky Irving in a favorable spot against Atlanta's porous run defense, though attention must be paid to Marvin Harrison Jr.'s heel injury which could sideline him entirely.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 13.9 18.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 16.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 11.7 10.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.8 22.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.2 20.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 13.9 16.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 11.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.2 5.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 10.7 6.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 11.0 9.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 14.8 15.0
Luther Burden III (bench) WR BE 8.1 11.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 12.8 8.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.2 12.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 10.1 8.0
0.0 Starter Actuals
128.0 Remaining Proj
128.0 Est. Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Caleb Williams QB QB 16.1 16.0
Jonathan Taylor RB RB 16.7 12.0
Sean Tucker RB RB 2.9 6.0
A.J. Brown WR WR 16.8 15.0
Justin Jefferson WR WR 15.7 16.0
Dalton Schultz TE TE 8.9 10.0
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE 12.2 8.0
Jake Elliott K K 8.0 7.0
Commanders D/ST D/ST D/ST 3.1 4.0
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE 17.2 ---
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE 13.2 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 4.2 ---
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE 11.9 ---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench) RB BE 12.6 ---
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE 14.9 ---
0.0 Opp Actuals
94.0 Opp Remaining
94.0 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +34.0 pts

Jordan Love ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 15% boom, 8% bust (favorable). QB18 ECR, tough @DEN (elite pass rush, 55 sacks). Selecting MODERATE conservative. 15.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 8% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], 25% BUST. XGB: 16% boom, 16% bust. Historical BOOM pattern strong but vs elite HOU D (12.2 PPG allowed). Risky but MC overwhelmingly BOOM. Selecting BOOM low-end. 18.0 within BOOM range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 16% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR15.319.0?+3.7
13TB17.219.6?+2.4
12JAX16.718.7?+1.9
  • 3-game streak of beating projections

Bucky Irving ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM [17-32], 65% MOD [8-20]. XGB: 16% boom, 35% bust. Thursday vs ATL (favorable, 131 rush yds/game allowed). Volume concerns with White. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 35% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14NO16.416.1?-0.3
13ARI11.816.1?+4.3
12LAR0.00.0?+0.0
11BUF0.00.0?+0.0
10NE0.00.0?+0.0
9BYE0.00.0?+0.0
8NO0.00.0?+0.0
7DET0.00.0?+0.0
6SF0.00.0?+0.0
5SEA0.00.0?+0.0
4PHI17.525.5?+8.0
3NYJ17.913.9?-4.0
2HOU15.918.1?+2.2
1ATL17.314.5?-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 15% BOOM [13-28], 67% MOD [3-15], 18% BUST. XGB: 21% boom, 26% bust. RB33 ECR, committee @SF tough D. MC strongly MODERATE. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 8.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM [15-30], 47% MOD [6-18], 26% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 56% bust. RB17 ECR, @KC elite run D. XGB flags HIGH bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 10.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14PHI12.114.7?+2.6
13LV0.00.0?+0.0
12BYE0.00.0?+0.0
11JAX0.00.0?+0.0
10PIT0.00.0?+0.0
9TEN0.00.0?+0.0
8MIN0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 2.1 pts vs 1.7 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.65)
  • Season high: 14.7 pts in Week 14

Devin Singletary ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 20% BOOM [11-26], 22% MOD [4-16], 58% BUST [-1-7]. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. RB29 ECR, committee concern. MC + XGB agree BUST mode likely. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM [21-36], 41% MOD [13-25]. XGB: 10% boom, 14% bust. Consensus WR1 vs weak IND defense (SEA -13.5, 42.5 total). Selecting MODERATE high-end. 22.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14ATL20.928.1?+7.2
13MIN21.94.3?-17.6
12TEN21.337.1?+15.8
11LAR23.020.6?-2.4
10ARI22.020.3?-1.7
9WSH24.522.0?-2.5
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7HOU20.026.3?+6.3
6JAX17.930.2?+12.3
5TB15.927.2?+11.3
4ARI16.413.0?-3.4
3NO15.520.6?+5.1
2PIT14.418.3?+3.9
1SF14.719.4?+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM [20-35], 34% MOD [8-20], 50% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 8% bust. WR21 ECR, coming off big game vs NO. MC shows BUST mode dominant but XGB favorable. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 8% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM [13-28], 43% MOD [6-18], 31% BUST [1-9]. XGB: 47% boom, 10% bust. QUESTIONABLE heel injury, possible season shutdown. vs elite HOU D. Injury concern overrides XGB optimism. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 10% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR0.00.0?+0.0
13TB13.712.9?-0.8
12JAX0.00.0?+0.0
11SF0.00.0?+0.0
10SEA13.314.3?+1.0
9DAL13.322.6?+9.3
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7GB12.57.8?-4.7
6IND11.95.2?-6.7
5TEN12.813.8?+1.0
4SEA11.318.6?+7.3
3SF12.77.4?-5.3
2CAR14.04.7?-9.3
1NO13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-32], 26% MOD [10-22]. XGB: 34% boom, 20% bust. WR7 ECR, target monster vs LAC. MC favors BOOM but XGB moderate. Selecting MODERATE high-end. 20.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14HOU17.17.4?-9.7
13DAL18.129.4?+11.3
12IND17.624.1?+6.5
11DEN16.49.8?-6.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9BUF18.418.6?+0.2
8WSH17.225.5?+8.2
7LV13.723.2?+9.5
6DET0.00.0?+0.0
5JAX0.00.0?+0.0
4BAL0.00.0?+0.0
3NYG0.00.0?+0.0
2PHI0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 10.6 pts vs 9.1 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.11)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM [17-32], 47% MOD [10-22]. XGB: 16% boom, 40% bust. WR11 ECR, DET@LAR highest O/U (54.5). XGB flags bust risk but game script favors. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14DAL13.817.3?+3.5
13GB11.826.9?+15.1
12NYG12.90.0?-12.9
11PHI12.619.7?+7.1
  • Averaging 16.0 pts vs 12.8 projected (+25%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.71)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM [12-17], 55% MOD [9-13], 20% BUST. XGB: N/A (no data). WR15 ECR, expanded role with Odunze out vs CLE. Tight range player. Selecting MODERATE. 11.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

Juwan Johnson ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM [9-21], 42% MOD [5-14], 26% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 73% bust. TE12 ECR, favorable vs CAR. XGB flags bust but matchup good. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 73% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14TB9.77.8?-1.9
13MIA8.78.9?+0.2
12ATL9.310.6?+1.3
11BYE0.00.0?+0.0
10CAR8.919.2?+10.2
9LAR8.312.1?+3.8
  • Averaging 9.8 pts vs 7.5 projected (+31%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.64)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 13% BOOM [19-31], 40% MOD [7-16], 48% BUST. XGB: 10% boom, 72% bust (HIGH). TE13 ECR, tough vs BUF (6.93 PPG to TEs). XGB flags major bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 9.0 within MOD range.

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 72% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Jordan Love (QB) - vs

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 8%

Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 15% boom, 8% bust (favorable). QB18 ECR, tough @DEN (elite pass rush, 55 sacks). Selecting MODERATE conservative. 15.0 within MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - vs

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 8%

Notes: MC: 16% BOOM [20-35], 34% MOD [8-20], 50% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 8% bust. WR21 ECR, coming off big game vs NO. MC shows BUST mode dominant but XGB favorable. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - vs

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 10%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM [13-28], 43% MOD [6-18], 31% BUST [1-9]. XGB: 47% boom, 10% bust. QUESTIONABLE heel injury, possible season shutdown. vs elite HOU D. Injury concern overrides XGB optimism. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR0.00.0?+0.0
13TB13.712.9?-0.8
12JAX0.00.0?+0.0
11SF0.00.0?+0.0
10SEA13.314.3?+1.0
9DAL13.322.6?+9.3
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7GB12.57.8?-4.7
6IND11.95.2?-6.7
5TEN12.813.8?+1.0
4SEA11.318.6?+7.3
3SF12.77.4?-5.3
2CAR14.04.7?-9.3
1NO13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - vs

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 26%

Notes: MC: 15% BOOM [13-28], 67% MOD [3-15], 18% BUST. XGB: 21% boom, 26% bust. RB33 ECR, committee @SF tough D. MC strongly MODERATE. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 8.0 within MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Hunter Henry (TE) - vs

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 72%

Notes: MC: 13% BOOM [19-31], 40% MOD [7-16], 48% BUST. XGB: 10% boom, 72% bust (HIGH). TE13 ECR, tough vs BUF (6.93 PPG to TEs). XGB flags major bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 9.0 within MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Devin Singletary (RB) - vs

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61%

Notes: MC: 20% BOOM [11-26], 22% MOD [4-16], 58% BUST [-1-7]. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. RB29 ECR, committee concern. MC + XGB agree BUST mode likely. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Luther Burden III (WR) - vs

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

Notes: MC: 25% BOOM [12-17], 55% MOD [9-13], 20% BUST. XGB: N/A (no data). WR15 ECR, expanded role with Odunze out vs CLE. Tight range player. Selecting MODERATE. 11.0 within MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Dalton Schultz TE 9.0 10.0 MODERATE 26% 55% 19% MEDIUM
Jake Elliott K 7.9 7.0 MODERATE 18% 20% 62% LOW
Justin Jefferson WR 13.4 16.0 MODERATE 16% 71% 13% LOW
Sean Tucker RB 10.0 6.0 BUST 10% 67% 23% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR 12.3 8.0 BUST 10% 23% 67% LOW
Caleb Williams QB 17.0 16.0 MODERATE 10% 80% 10% LOW
A.J. Brown WR 15.8 15.0 MODERATE 9% 26% 64% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB 20.8 12.0 BUST 8% 25% 66% LOW
Commanders D/ST D/ST 3.0 4.0 MODERATE 0% 0% 0% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 26% | Bust 19%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 62%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 13%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 23%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 67%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 10%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 66%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%43%
Bust%21%
EV7.4
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%42%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)
ADD Garrett Wilson WR,
Boom%36%
Bust%35%
EV14.8
BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%34%
Bust%14%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,
Boom%32%
Bust%16%
EV8.0
BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 43% 21% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 42% 20% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 36% 35% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 34% 14% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 32% 16% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 29% 26% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 27% 54% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.5 21% 31% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 20% 22% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 20% 9% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.8 20% 35% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 19% 56% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 9.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 47% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 16% 58% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 20% 35%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 19% 56%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 15% 43%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 42% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 32% 16%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 29% 26%
Chuba Hubbard 11.5 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 21% 31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 10% 68%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 36% 35%
Matthew Golden 9.0 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 48%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 16% 58%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 12% 66%
Keenan Allen 11.9 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 11% 66%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 34% 14%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 20% 9%
Colston Loveland 9.8 BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% 10% 60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.6 27% 54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 20% 22%
Evan McPherson 9.5 14% 68%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 43% 21%
Patriots D/ST 8.8 18% 47%
Dolphins D/ST 8.7 14% 63%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.88.0BUST46.9%42.9%10.2%
Jason MyersK8.511.0MODERATE40.8%40.3%18.9%
Rashee RiceWR17.220.0MODERATE33.7%46.8%19.6%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.18.0MODERATE21.0%53.5%25.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.916.0MODERATE16.3%43.5%40.3%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.918.0BOOM16.3%67.9%15.8%
Bucky IrvingRB15.216.0MODERATE15.7%49.5%34.8%
Jordan LoveQB14.815.0MODERATE14.8%77.0%8.2%
Devin SingletaryRB10.76.0BUST14.7%24.1%61.2%
Rams D/STD/ST4.25.0BUST12.6%15.4%72.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.212.0MODERATE12.5%79.1%8.5%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE12.5%14.5%73.1%
Omarion HamptonRB11.710.0MODERATE11.7%32.8%55.5%
Hunter HenryTE11.09.0MODERATE9.6%18.3%72.0%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.822.0MODERATE9.5%77.0%13.5%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-09 22:05

Matchup Summary

67.4%

Win Probability

+14.5
Expected Margin
128.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
94.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.9
Margin Std Dev
124.2
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.9 pts | Median: +14.8 pts | Ceiling: +56.6 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 18.0 3.8-27.8 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 14% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 16.0 5.0-24.3 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 10.0 3.6-24.5 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.3-30.6 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 20.0 6.0-28.0 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 16.0 4.1-25.1 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.9-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 5.2-17.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 15.0 6.3-27.5 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.4-18.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.0 0.7-18.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 12.0 5.4-25.4 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 7% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 8.0 3.8-22.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luther Burden III WR LOW 11.0 7.5-14.8 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 3% Luther Burden III
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 9.0 3.4-21.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 16.0 6.0-29.8 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 12.0 8.5-37.9 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 6.0 1.7-27.7 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% Sean Tucker
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 16.0 5.6-23.1 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 6% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 15.0 2.6-29.0 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 8.0 3.6-24.6 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 21% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 10.0 2.7-17.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 30% Dalton Schultz
Commanders D/ST D/ST MED 4.0 1.4-5.1 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 89% Commanders D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 7.0 2.2-14.9 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 32% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.3-25.0 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 9% C.J. Stroud
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.8-24.2 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 35% Kenneth Gainwell
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.8-24.5 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 12.9 5.5-22.0 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 7% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.2-21.5 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 9% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.8-20.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 25% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE HIGH 9.2 3.5-18.2 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.4 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.1
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 15.0 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 73% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 25% @ 5.8 17.3
Rams D/ST D/ST 22% @ 17.6 39% @ 9.2 40% @ 4.0 8.9

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1633.8 1645.4 -11.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 99.9%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1686.6 1445.6 +241.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W4 75.4%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1601.3 1616.8 -15.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 58.1%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1429.7 1471.9 -42.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 33.2%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 24.5%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1610.5 1537.4 +73.1 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 8.9%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1478.5 1531.2 -52.7 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1471.5 1561.6 -90.1 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1495.1 1646.5 -151.4 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1584.9 1631.2 -46.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.

Injury Concerns

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
10.4
Opponent MAE
9 players
25
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 11.6
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.8 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 0.0 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 0.0 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 0.0 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 0.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 0.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 11.0 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.8 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 0.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent K Jake Elliott 0.0 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.7 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Opponent RB Sean Tucker 0.0 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Opponent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 4.0 0.0 -4.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-12-09T22:05:24.174932

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.0 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.8 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.5 pts
90th percentile 30.4 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 25.6 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 12.8 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
47% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 17.1 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
34% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 18.7 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
21% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.6 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.7 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 16.8 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.7 pts
90th percentile 25.1 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 18.5 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.5 pts
90th percentile 22.2 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.5 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
Luther Burden III distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
55%
BUST
20%
10th percentile 7.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 12.0 pts
90th percentile 22.8 pts
MC (Historical)
6% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 14.2 pts
90th percentile 29.3 pts
MC (Historical)
37% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 8.6 pts
Median (50th) 17.4 pts
90th percentile 37.8 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Sean Tucker (RB)
Sean Tucker distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 1.6 pts
Median (50th) 6.7 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
25%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 9.8 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 5.9 pts
Median (50th) 15.7 pts
90th percentile 29.8 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.0 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Commanders D/ST (D/ST)
Commanders D/ST distribution
LLM 4.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
55%
BUST
20%
10th percentile 1.4 pts
Median (50th) 2.8 pts
90th percentile 5.1 pts