Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM | |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM | |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | LOW | |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH | |
| WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 20.0 | MODERATE | HIGH | |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM | |
| WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM | |
| K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | HIGH | |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a strong matchup advantage against Auto DraftKings with a projected +34 point margin (128.0 vs 94.0). Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters as consensus WR1 against a weak Indianapolis defense with Seattle favored by 13.5 points, while Jacoby Brissett gets the start over Jordan Love thanks to his remarkable 73% historical BOOM mode despite facing Houston's elite defense. The Thursday night game features Bucky Irving in a favorable spot against Atlanta's porous run defense, though attention must be paid to Marvin Harrison Jr.'s heel injury which could sideline him entirely.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 18.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 16.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.8 | 22.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 20.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.7 | 6.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 15.0 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | 8.1 | 11.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | 8.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 8.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | 16.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 16.7 | 12.0 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB | 2.9 | 6.0 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | 15.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | 16.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.2 | 8.0 |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.2 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.9 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell (bench) | RB | BE | 12.6 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.9 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 15% boom, 8% bust (favorable). QB18 ECR, tough @DEN (elite pass rush, 55 sacks). Selecting MODERATE conservative. 15.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 8% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], 25% BUST. XGB: 16% boom, 16% bust. Historical BOOM pattern strong but vs elite HOU D (12.2 PPG allowed). Risky but MC overwhelmingly BOOM. Selecting BOOM low-end. 18.0 within BOOM range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 16% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | ? | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 19.6 | ? | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM [17-32], 65% MOD [8-20]. XGB: 16% boom, 35% bust. Thursday vs ATL (favorable, 131 rush yds/game allowed). Volume concerns with White. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 35% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.1 | ? | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 16.1 | ? | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 15% BOOM [13-28], 67% MOD [3-15], 18% BUST. XGB: 21% boom, 26% bust. RB33 ECR, committee @SF tough D. MC strongly MODERATE. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 8.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM [15-30], 47% MOD [6-18], 26% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 56% bust. RB17 ECR, @KC elite run D. XGB flags HIGH bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 10.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 14.7 | ? | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 20% BOOM [11-26], 22% MOD [4-16], 58% BUST [-1-7]. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. RB29 ECR, committee concern. MC + XGB agree BUST mode likely. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM [21-36], 41% MOD [13-25]. XGB: 10% boom, 14% bust. Consensus WR1 vs weak IND defense (SEA -13.5, 42.5 total). Selecting MODERATE high-end. 22.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 28.1 | ? | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 4.3 | ? | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM [20-35], 34% MOD [8-20], 50% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 8% bust. WR21 ECR, coming off big game vs NO. MC shows BUST mode dominant but XGB favorable. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 8% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM [13-28], 43% MOD [6-18], 31% BUST [1-9]. XGB: 47% boom, 10% bust. QUESTIONABLE heel injury, possible season shutdown. vs elite HOU D. Injury concern overrides XGB optimism. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 10% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 12.9 | ? | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-32], 26% MOD [10-22]. XGB: 34% boom, 20% bust. WR7 ECR, target monster vs LAC. MC favors BOOM but XGB moderate. Selecting MODERATE high-end. 20.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 7.4 | ? | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 29.4 | ? | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM [17-32], 47% MOD [10-22]. XGB: 16% boom, 40% bust. WR11 ECR, DET@LAR highest O/U (54.5). XGB flags bust risk but game script favors. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | ? | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 26.9 | ? | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM [12-17], 55% MOD [9-13], 20% BUST. XGB: N/A (no data). WR15 ECR, expanded role with Odunze out vs CLE. Tight range player. Selecting MODERATE. 11.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM [9-21], 42% MOD [5-14], 26% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 73% bust. TE12 ECR, favorable vs CAR. XGB flags bust but matchup good. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 73% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 7.8 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 8.9 | ? | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 13% BOOM [19-31], 40% MOD [7-16], 48% BUST. XGB: 10% boom, 72% bust (HIGH). TE13 ECR, tough vs BUF (6.93 PPG to TEs). XGB flags major bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 9.0 within MOD range.
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 72% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 8%
Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 15% boom, 8% bust (favorable). QB18 ECR, tough @DEN (elite pass rush, 55 sacks). Selecting MODERATE conservative. 15.0 within MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 8%
Notes: MC: 16% BOOM [20-35], 34% MOD [8-20], 50% BUST. XGB: 12% boom, 8% bust. WR21 ECR, coming off big game vs NO. MC shows BUST mode dominant but XGB favorable. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 10%
Notes: MC: 27% BOOM [13-28], 43% MOD [6-18], 31% BUST [1-9]. XGB: 47% boom, 10% bust. QUESTIONABLE heel injury, possible season shutdown. vs elite HOU D. Injury concern overrides XGB optimism. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 12.9 | ? | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 26%
Notes: MC: 15% BOOM [13-28], 67% MOD [3-15], 18% BUST. XGB: 21% boom, 26% bust. RB33 ECR, committee @SF tough D. MC strongly MODERATE. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 8.0 within MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 72%
Notes: MC: 13% BOOM [19-31], 40% MOD [7-16], 48% BUST. XGB: 10% boom, 72% bust (HIGH). TE13 ECR, tough vs BUF (6.93 PPG to TEs). XGB flags major bust risk. Selecting MODERATE low-end. 9.0 within MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61%
Notes: MC: 20% BOOM [11-26], 22% MOD [4-16], 58% BUST [-1-7]. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. RB29 ECR, committee concern. MC + XGB agree BUST mode likely. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
Notes: MC: 25% BOOM [12-17], 55% MOD [9-13], 20% BUST. XGB: N/A (no data). WR15 ECR, expanded role with Odunze out vs CLE. Tight range player. Selecting MODERATE. 11.0 within MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 9.0 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 26% | 55% | 19% | MEDIUM | |
| Jake Elliott | K | 7.9 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 18% | 20% | 62% | LOW | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 13.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 16% | 71% | 13% | LOW | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | 10.0 | 6.0 | BUST | 10% | 67% | 23% | LOW | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 12.3 | 8.0 | BUST | 10% | 23% | 67% | LOW | |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 17.0 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 10% | 80% | 10% | LOW | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 15.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 26% | 64% | LOW | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 20.8 | 12.0 | BUST | 8% | 25% | 66% | LOW | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 3.0 | 4.0 | MODERATE | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW |
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 26% | Bust 19%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 62%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 13%)
Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 23%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 67%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 10%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 66%)
Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.8 | 8.0 | BUST | 46.9% | 42.9% | 10.2% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 40.8% | 40.3% | 18.9% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 33.7% | 46.8% | 19.6% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 21.0% | 53.5% | 25.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 16.3% | 43.5% | 40.3% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | 16.3% | 67.9% | 15.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 15.7% | 49.5% | 34.8% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 14.8% | 77.0% | 8.2% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.7 | 6.0 | BUST | 14.7% | 24.1% | 61.2% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | BUST | 12.6% | 15.4% | 72.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 12.5% | 79.1% | 8.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 12.5% | 14.5% | 73.1% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 11.7% | 32.8% | 55.5% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 11.0 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 9.6% | 18.3% | 72.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 9.5% | 77.0% | 13.5% |
Win Probability
Floor: -27.9 pts | Median: +14.8 pts | Ceiling: +56.6 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 18.0 | 3.8-27.8 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 16.0 | 5.0-24.3 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.6-24.5 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.3-30.6 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 20.0 | 6.0-28.0 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.1-25.1 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 5.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 5.2-17.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 15.0 | 6.3-27.5 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.7-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 5.4-25.4 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.8-22.0 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | LOW | 11.0 | 7.5-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.4-21.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 6.0-29.8 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 8.5-37.9 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.7-27.7 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 5.6-23.1 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 2.6-29.0 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.6-24.6 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.7-17.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | MED | 4.0 | 1.4-5.1 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 89% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.2-14.9 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.3-25.0 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.8-24.2 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 35% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.5 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.5-22.0 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.2-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.5-18.2 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.6 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W4 | 75.4% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.1% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 33.2% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.5% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 8.9% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1531.2 | -52.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 11.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Sean Tucker | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-12-09T22:05:24.174932